India is in a government-enforced lockdown that is harsher than in many other countries. Our streets are being patrolled by the police with instructions to take strict action against people violating protocol. Some chief ministers have threatened to give orders to shoot at sight, others have promised to send violators to jail. Yet, very few are clear on what constitutes a violation and what does not. The list of essential services expands and contracts in response to every crisis that emerges. Kerala recently allowed the sale of alcohol to those with a doctors prescription, Haryana, on the other hand, closed down liquor shops 2 days into the lockdown. These revisions and re-revisions of government guidelines circulate as Whatsapp forwards with varying degrees of accuracy, adding to the confusion, fomenting fear and panic. The lack of clarity among the administration and the public alike is likely to be a most formidable hurdle in India's struggle against the coronavirus.
In the weeks to come, the people of India will be more reliant than ever on the state in its role as coordinator and enforcer. Any loss in the credibility of the government can prove devastating to India's hopes of successfully combating the threat of coronavirus. At its core, the credibility of the state rests on being able to limit opportunistic behavior by any individual or group of individuals. In that regard, the Indian state has not been very effective, even in the best of times. The long record of inefficiency and poor implementation aside, the officials used to making arbitrary decisions while presiding over their fiefdoms, will now be responsible for keeping the country functioning. The few institutional checks and balances and the largely informal private enterprise that helped paper over the cracks will no longer be able to do so as effectively.
As we wade deeper into the crisis precipitated by the SARS-COV 2 virus, the immediate urgency of fighting the virus will give way to the urgency of getting on with our lives, fatigue will set in, tempers will fray and the number of infractions will mount. Our health infrastructure is certainly not equipped for the surge in numbers that is predicted for the next few months, but maybe we can build and buy our way out of it, with some help from the international community. But if our governance structure falters, there will be very few remedies available. To give ourselves a fighting chance, it is imperative to acknowledge the importance of clarity, wherein all actors, government enforcers, and citizens, know what is expected of them in the days to come.
Clarity precedes Credibility
These are unprecedented times and nobody can draw on past experiences to form their expectations of the coming days. This creates a clarity problem that can destabilize any system of governance; the people who are expected to comply are not on the same page as the people who are expected to enforce. The purpose of the big stick of enforcement available to any government is to get people to comply with rules and regulations. But if people do not know what it is that they have to comply with, the stick cannot accomplish much. In fact, it can lead to a situation where any act of enforcement might seem to be arbitrary and therefore erode the trust between people and the government that it is critical in times like these. Which would then lead to even minimal levels of compliance requiring stricter enforcement, creating a vicious cycle which will be tough to break out of.
The spread in the perception of arbitrariness is going to be expedited if the enforcers themselves are unaware of what it is that they are meant to enforce. It took a day too many before the decision of allowing food delivery services to ply in the lockdown made it to local law enforcement. In the meanwhile, delivery boys were harassed, and in some extreme cases, even beaten up. Allegations of these actions being taken to extort money aside, it is not difficult to imagine that the local policemen were merely trying to enforce the lockdown the best they could. With a limited force charged policing millions, sporadic cases of highhandedness may be inevitable, but the lag between the formulation of policy and change in enforcement strategy can make the situation worse than it has to be. Not only will it very likely affect the morale of the people policing our streets, but it would also make it difficult for conscientious members of society to file complaints with the police.
Lack of Clarity Within
Any government is comprised of many individuals constituted in departments, organizations, and committees. One of the key tasks of administration, particularly in a crisis is to ensure that its constituent elements of the government move in sync. Even in these uncertain times, it would be reasonable to expect that plans to cope with the outbreak were made, with detailed instructions for all concerned and that these plans were shared with the responsible authorities. This is particularly true as India was not in the initial line of fire of the virus and the government had some weeks in which these plans should have been put in place. But it does not seem that governments had a detailed plan in place, even for its own branches where it would have been easier to anticipate problems.
Consider the case of the measure where the central government asked public sector banks and undertakings to work with 50% of staff, while still providing all essential services. The trouble with this requirement, besides the extremely short notice in which it was to be carried out, is that not all of these firms need 50% of their staff to provide basic services, some need less, some need more. If they need less, the person in charge of making these decisions in the organization would have to either risk putting more colleagues in harm's way than required or being hauled up for not enforcing orders. If they need more, the problem is even more severe. In either case, the person in charge will have to make harsh decisions, which, might risk insubordination in the not too distant future.
It is unclear if the 50% mandate was meant to avoid confusion, a manifestation of the lack of trust in the decision-making capabilities of the top leadership of these organizations or merely a result of the lack of willingness to give up authority by people at the center of the decision-making matrix. Whatever be the reasons for which the decision was made, it ended up reducing clarity by having two requirements that were not necessarily compatible with each other.
Lack of Clarity Without
The lack of clarity that seems to be dogging the government's machinery from within also extends to the public at large. In the lockdown that has been in force since 23rd March, a common refrain has been that essential goods and services will be available. The big problem has been with the term essential. There was an original list of services that every state government released, but each of those lists has been amended many many times since. The trouble of keeping track of these changes is compounded by the increasing divergence in the positions taken by different state governments. This not only creates problems in identifying what activities people should and should not engage in a particular state but also the possibility of disaffection with people in state A not able to access somethings that people in state B can.
Decentralization has often been touted as a panacea to India's governance problems. We are a diverse country and it is very difficult to come up with one size fits all solution. However, in the present crisis, while de-facto decentralization in implementation decisions is unavoidable, it is very much desirable that 720 districts or 36 states (& UTs) do not make policy independent of each other. A stark example of the problems that arise from the lack of coordination across the country is the migrant labor crisis. It is difficult to ascertain if the trigger for large scale movement of people was any specific policy or lack thereof, but it is almost certain that greater coordination across states would have enabled quicker remedial measures. For now, the problem has been dealt with the sealing of borders and providing food and shelter. But sustained lack of clarity on what these people stuck in no man's land can expect from the coming weeks, will lead another round of attempted exodus. Consistency in policy across states, facilitated by the central government, with minor local changes will not only reduce the strain of keeping up with the policy changes in this rapidly evolving environment but also help state governments coordinate better.
The Way Forward
The basis of an ideal governance structure is the clarity that emanates from classifying actions into good and bad. The people being governed know of this classification. Some of them take good actions due to innate preferences, others follow due to the threat of being caught by the police and still others follow due to the threat of the other people complaining to the police. The police follow their own classification of actions in identifying deviants and punishing them. More than a week into the lockdown these classifications are still not clear.
Should I take food and rations to the nearby slum, would that be a violation of the lockdown? Would my actions increase the danger of the virus spreading? What should the police do? Should they ask me to go home? Should they take the food from me? Should they let me be? If the endgame of the lockdown, as the WHO seems to suggest, is to test more people, should go get tested in a private facility, if I can afford it? Or will I be tested by government officials when the time comes? If making toothpaste is not an essential service, will we not run out of toothpaste soon?
This is an evolving situation and not all measures, counter-measures and their outcomes could have been foreseen by even the most astute observers. The swiftness with which we went from the PM 'asking' for a few weeks of our time to full national lockdown surprised many, but maybe the decision had been delayed to a point where there were few remaining options. It is apparent that irrespective of the policy choice made, there will be many fires that will need to be put out in the weeks and the months to come. This monumental task, if it has to be accomplished without moving to a decidedly authoritarian form of governance, can only be carried out if the government and its people trust each other.
Only clear and honest communication from the government can form the basis of this trust. Information about the state of the country; its finances, capabilities of its health infrastructures, and the expectations from individual citizens will form the bulwark against panic and recklessness. Platitudes and promises that reveal themselves to be hollow, create a trust deficit which foments rumor mills. If the objective of credible governance is to limit opportunistic behavior, the lack of clarity about the world resulting from rumors make this objective ever more elusive.
Many of us will be forced to make very difficult decisions in the times to come. Whether these decisions will back the government's efforts or obstruct them, will in large part, be determined by the information we have about the government's plans. There will still be those for whom the threat of punishment must be maintained, but for most being informed of what we should and should not do, along with the assurance that our near and dear will be taken care of, will suffice. The Indian republic has survived for 7 decades, allegations of weak governance and opportunistic citizens notwithstanding. It is time that the government of India gives reposes faith in its citizens and tells us exactly what they plan to do, and how we can help.
In the weeks to come, the people of India will be more reliant than ever on the state in its role as coordinator and enforcer. Any loss in the credibility of the government can prove devastating to India's hopes of successfully combating the threat of coronavirus. At its core, the credibility of the state rests on being able to limit opportunistic behavior by any individual or group of individuals. In that regard, the Indian state has not been very effective, even in the best of times. The long record of inefficiency and poor implementation aside, the officials used to making arbitrary decisions while presiding over their fiefdoms, will now be responsible for keeping the country functioning. The few institutional checks and balances and the largely informal private enterprise that helped paper over the cracks will no longer be able to do so as effectively.
As we wade deeper into the crisis precipitated by the SARS-COV 2 virus, the immediate urgency of fighting the virus will give way to the urgency of getting on with our lives, fatigue will set in, tempers will fray and the number of infractions will mount. Our health infrastructure is certainly not equipped for the surge in numbers that is predicted for the next few months, but maybe we can build and buy our way out of it, with some help from the international community. But if our governance structure falters, there will be very few remedies available. To give ourselves a fighting chance, it is imperative to acknowledge the importance of clarity, wherein all actors, government enforcers, and citizens, know what is expected of them in the days to come.
Clarity precedes Credibility
These are unprecedented times and nobody can draw on past experiences to form their expectations of the coming days. This creates a clarity problem that can destabilize any system of governance; the people who are expected to comply are not on the same page as the people who are expected to enforce. The purpose of the big stick of enforcement available to any government is to get people to comply with rules and regulations. But if people do not know what it is that they have to comply with, the stick cannot accomplish much. In fact, it can lead to a situation where any act of enforcement might seem to be arbitrary and therefore erode the trust between people and the government that it is critical in times like these. Which would then lead to even minimal levels of compliance requiring stricter enforcement, creating a vicious cycle which will be tough to break out of.
The spread in the perception of arbitrariness is going to be expedited if the enforcers themselves are unaware of what it is that they are meant to enforce. It took a day too many before the decision of allowing food delivery services to ply in the lockdown made it to local law enforcement. In the meanwhile, delivery boys were harassed, and in some extreme cases, even beaten up. Allegations of these actions being taken to extort money aside, it is not difficult to imagine that the local policemen were merely trying to enforce the lockdown the best they could. With a limited force charged policing millions, sporadic cases of highhandedness may be inevitable, but the lag between the formulation of policy and change in enforcement strategy can make the situation worse than it has to be. Not only will it very likely affect the morale of the people policing our streets, but it would also make it difficult for conscientious members of society to file complaints with the police.
Lack of Clarity Within
Any government is comprised of many individuals constituted in departments, organizations, and committees. One of the key tasks of administration, particularly in a crisis is to ensure that its constituent elements of the government move in sync. Even in these uncertain times, it would be reasonable to expect that plans to cope with the outbreak were made, with detailed instructions for all concerned and that these plans were shared with the responsible authorities. This is particularly true as India was not in the initial line of fire of the virus and the government had some weeks in which these plans should have been put in place. But it does not seem that governments had a detailed plan in place, even for its own branches where it would have been easier to anticipate problems.
Consider the case of the measure where the central government asked public sector banks and undertakings to work with 50% of staff, while still providing all essential services. The trouble with this requirement, besides the extremely short notice in which it was to be carried out, is that not all of these firms need 50% of their staff to provide basic services, some need less, some need more. If they need less, the person in charge of making these decisions in the organization would have to either risk putting more colleagues in harm's way than required or being hauled up for not enforcing orders. If they need more, the problem is even more severe. In either case, the person in charge will have to make harsh decisions, which, might risk insubordination in the not too distant future.
It is unclear if the 50% mandate was meant to avoid confusion, a manifestation of the lack of trust in the decision-making capabilities of the top leadership of these organizations or merely a result of the lack of willingness to give up authority by people at the center of the decision-making matrix. Whatever be the reasons for which the decision was made, it ended up reducing clarity by having two requirements that were not necessarily compatible with each other.
Lack of Clarity Without
The lack of clarity that seems to be dogging the government's machinery from within also extends to the public at large. In the lockdown that has been in force since 23rd March, a common refrain has been that essential goods and services will be available. The big problem has been with the term essential. There was an original list of services that every state government released, but each of those lists has been amended many many times since. The trouble of keeping track of these changes is compounded by the increasing divergence in the positions taken by different state governments. This not only creates problems in identifying what activities people should and should not engage in a particular state but also the possibility of disaffection with people in state A not able to access somethings that people in state B can.
Decentralization has often been touted as a panacea to India's governance problems. We are a diverse country and it is very difficult to come up with one size fits all solution. However, in the present crisis, while de-facto decentralization in implementation decisions is unavoidable, it is very much desirable that 720 districts or 36 states (& UTs) do not make policy independent of each other. A stark example of the problems that arise from the lack of coordination across the country is the migrant labor crisis. It is difficult to ascertain if the trigger for large scale movement of people was any specific policy or lack thereof, but it is almost certain that greater coordination across states would have enabled quicker remedial measures. For now, the problem has been dealt with the sealing of borders and providing food and shelter. But sustained lack of clarity on what these people stuck in no man's land can expect from the coming weeks, will lead another round of attempted exodus. Consistency in policy across states, facilitated by the central government, with minor local changes will not only reduce the strain of keeping up with the policy changes in this rapidly evolving environment but also help state governments coordinate better.
The Way Forward
The basis of an ideal governance structure is the clarity that emanates from classifying actions into good and bad. The people being governed know of this classification. Some of them take good actions due to innate preferences, others follow due to the threat of being caught by the police and still others follow due to the threat of the other people complaining to the police. The police follow their own classification of actions in identifying deviants and punishing them. More than a week into the lockdown these classifications are still not clear.
Should I take food and rations to the nearby slum, would that be a violation of the lockdown? Would my actions increase the danger of the virus spreading? What should the police do? Should they ask me to go home? Should they take the food from me? Should they let me be? If the endgame of the lockdown, as the WHO seems to suggest, is to test more people, should go get tested in a private facility, if I can afford it? Or will I be tested by government officials when the time comes? If making toothpaste is not an essential service, will we not run out of toothpaste soon?
This is an evolving situation and not all measures, counter-measures and their outcomes could have been foreseen by even the most astute observers. The swiftness with which we went from the PM 'asking' for a few weeks of our time to full national lockdown surprised many, but maybe the decision had been delayed to a point where there were few remaining options. It is apparent that irrespective of the policy choice made, there will be many fires that will need to be put out in the weeks and the months to come. This monumental task, if it has to be accomplished without moving to a decidedly authoritarian form of governance, can only be carried out if the government and its people trust each other.
Only clear and honest communication from the government can form the basis of this trust. Information about the state of the country; its finances, capabilities of its health infrastructures, and the expectations from individual citizens will form the bulwark against panic and recklessness. Platitudes and promises that reveal themselves to be hollow, create a trust deficit which foments rumor mills. If the objective of credible governance is to limit opportunistic behavior, the lack of clarity about the world resulting from rumors make this objective ever more elusive.
Many of us will be forced to make very difficult decisions in the times to come. Whether these decisions will back the government's efforts or obstruct them, will in large part, be determined by the information we have about the government's plans. There will still be those for whom the threat of punishment must be maintained, but for most being informed of what we should and should not do, along with the assurance that our near and dear will be taken care of, will suffice. The Indian republic has survived for 7 decades, allegations of weak governance and opportunistic citizens notwithstanding. It is time that the government of India gives reposes faith in its citizens and tells us exactly what they plan to do, and how we can help.
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